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                <text>MPHIL</text>
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              <text>CONTRARIAN  AND MOMENTUM  STRATEGIES IN THE INDIAN STOCK FUTURES MARKET:  A STUDY ON BANKING SECTOR</text>
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              <text>CHAUDHURY  SUDHIN ANUMITA</text>
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              <text>2012</text>
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              <text>Management Studies</text>
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              <text>This thesis tries to investigate the contrarian and momentum strategy can help the investors to lay down the major guidelines for undertaking any derivative transaction. Contrarian  strategies  are based  on the  reversal  pattern  in stock  returns  and  imply buying past losers and selling past winners. On the contrary, Momentum strategies are based on the continuation pattern in stock returns and imply buying past winners and selling past losers. For the purpose of analysis, the stock returns for the Indian stock futures market segment for Indian banking sector for the period from July 1, 2005 to June 30 2011 by using the Fama and French multifactor  model. The Fama-French model involves  the use of three factors  for explaining  common stock returns: the market factor proposed by the CAPM, and factors relating to size and value. The company used in this research consists of 16 Banks which were ranked in an ascending order based on their average returns. The ranked securities are then used to form five equal portfolios. While portfolio P1 contains the bottom 20 per cent securities and is called "losers' portfolio," portfolio P5 contains the top 20 per cent securities and is termed as "winners' portfolio." The findings suggests that the stock-return behavior in banking sector for short-term momentum profits and long term contrarian profits exist in  this  case.  Further,  the  contrarian  trading  strategy  based  on  long  term  returns provides  moderately  positive  payoffs  and  short-term  returns  show  a  continuation pattern and the investment strategy based on momentum effect provides significantly high  returns.  Finally,  the  study  generally  supportive  of  the  Fama-French  model applied to Indian futures stock market related to banking sector.



Keywords: Contrarian, Momentum, Stock Returns, CAPM, Fama-French Model

JEL Classification: C12, C22, E43, G11

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