Development and evaluation of the bootstrap resampling technique based statistical prediction model for Covid-19 real time data : A data driven approach
- Title
- Development and evaluation of the bootstrap resampling technique based statistical prediction model for Covid-19 real time data : A data driven approach
- Creator
- Karthick K.; Aruna S.K.; Manikandan R.
- Description
- The objective of the article is to develop earlyR package based novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) forecasting model. The reported COVID-19 serial interval data is applied for obtaining maximum likelihood value of the reproduction number (R0) using maximum likelihood approach and projections package is applied for getting trajectories of epidemic curve. The minimum, median, mean and maximum projected value of R0 with 95% confidence interval (CI) is obtained by using bootstrap resampling strategy and the predicted cumulative probable count of new cases is also presented with different quantile. To validate the results with real scenario, the past COVID-19 data is considered. The % error rate ranges from -7.91% to 21.27% for the developed model for the five Indian States. 2022 Taru Publications.
- Source
- Journal of Interdisciplinary Mathematics, Vol-25, No. 3, pp. 615-627.
- Date
- 2022-01-01
- Publisher
- Taru Publications
- Subject
- Bootstrap resampling method; COVID-19; Early prediction of epidemic; Maximum-likelihood approach; Primary 62-XX; R0 value; Reproduction number; Secondary 62P30
- Coverage
- Karthick K., Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, GMR Institute of Technology, Andhra Pradesh, Rajam, 532127, India; Aruna S.K., Department of Computer Science and Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, CHRIST (Deemed to be University, Karnataka, Bangalore, 560029, India; Manikandan R., Department of Electronics and Instrumentation Engineering, Panimalar Engineering College, Tamil Nadu, Chennai, 600123, India
- Rights
- Restricted Access
- Relation
- ISSN: 9720502
- Format
- Online
- Language
- English
- Type
- Article
Collection
Citation
Karthick K.; Aruna S.K.; Manikandan R., “Development and evaluation of the bootstrap resampling technique based statistical prediction model for Covid-19 real time data : A data driven approach,” CHRIST (Deemed To Be University) Institutional Repository, accessed February 24, 2025, https://archives.christuniversity.in/items/show/15477.