Logistic growth and SIR modelling of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in India: Models based on real-time data
- Title
- Logistic growth and SIR modelling of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in India: Models based on real-time data
- Creator
- Mackolil J.; Mahanthesh B.
- Description
- The logistic growth model and the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) framework are utilized for the mathematical modelling of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in India. Karnataka, Kerala and Maharashtra, three states of India, are selected based on the pattern of the disease spread and the prominence in being affected in India. The parameters of the models are estimated by utilizing real-time data. The models predict the ending of the pandemic in these states and estimate the number of people that would be affected under the prevailing conditions. The models classify the pandemic into five stages based on the nature of the infection growth rate. According to the estimates of the models it can be concluded that Kerala is in a stable situation whereas the pandemic is still growing in Karnataka and Maharashtra. The infection rate of Karnataka and Kerala are lesser than 5% and reveal a downward trend. On the other hand, the infection rate and the high predicted number of infectives in Maharashtra calls for more preventive measures to be imposed in Maharashtra to control the disease spread. The results of this analysis provide valuable information regarding the disease spread in India. 2020, International Information and Engineering Technology Association.
- Source
- Mathematical Modelling of Engineering Problems, Vol-7, No. 3, pp. 345-350.
- Date
- 2020-01-01
- Publisher
- International Information and Engineering Technology Association
- Subject
- COVID-19; Epidemic; Logistic growth model; Mathematical modelling; Novel corona virus; SIR model
- Coverage
- Mackolil J., Department of Mathematics, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru, 560029, India; Mahanthesh B., Department of Mathematics, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru, 560029, India
- Rights
- Restricted Access
- Relation
- ISSN: 23690739
- Format
- Online
- Language
- English
- Type
- Article
Collection
Citation
Mackolil J.; Mahanthesh B., “Logistic growth and SIR modelling of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in India: Models based on real-time data,” CHRIST (Deemed To Be University) Institutional Repository, accessed February 24, 2025, https://archives.christuniversity.in/items/show/16217.