Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Conference Papers Conference Paper Faculty Publications- Conference Papers Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Analysis and Forecasting of Crude Oil Price Based on Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Approaches Subject The topic of the resource ARIMA; Cointegration; GARCH; Granger causality; Petroleum products; VAR; VECM Description An account of the resource This paper discusses the notion of multivariate and univariate analysis for the prediction of crude oil price in India. The study also looks at the long-term relationship between the crude oil prices and its petroleum products price such as diesel, gasoline, and natural gas in India. Both univariate and multivariate time series analyses are used to predict the relationship between crude oil price and other petroleum products. The Johansen cointegration test, EngleGranger test, vector error correction (VEC) model, and vector auto regressive (VAR) model are used in this study to assess the long- and short-run dynamics between crude oil prices and other petroleum products. Prediction of crude oil price has also been modeled with respect to the univariate time series models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, Holt exponential smoothing, and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). The cointegration test indicated that diesel prices and crude oil prices have a long-run link. The Granger causality test revealed a bidirectional relationship between the price of diesel and the price of gasoline, as well as a unidirectional association between the price of diesel and the price of crude oil. Based on in-sample forecasts, accuracy metrics such as root mean square logarithmic error (RMSLE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute square error (MASE) were derived, and it was discovered that VECM and ARIMA models can efficiently predict crude oil prices. 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Thomas A.; John N. Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, Vol-462, pp. 137-151. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2022-01-01 Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2211-4_12" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2211-4_12</a> <br /><br /><a href="https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85135051783&amp;doi=10.1007%2F978-981-19-2211-4_12&amp;partnerID=40&amp;md5=eeb2847c1bee80e98db85c548b40d750" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85135051783&amp;doi=10.1007%2f978-981-19-2211-4_12&amp;partnerID=40&amp;md5=eeb2847c1bee80e98db85c548b40d750</a> Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource Restricted Access Relation A related resource ISSN: 23673370; ISBN: 978-981192210-7 Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource Online Language A language of the resource English Type The nature or genre of the resource Conference paper Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Thomas A., CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru, India; John N., CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru, India