ItemArticle

Multi-dimensional changes in drought patterns across India

Title
Multi-dimensional changes in drought patterns across India
Creator
Tiwari, Arpit; Chakravorthy, Soumi; Nanjundan, Preethi; Ranjan Kumar, Ravi; Karmakar, Ananya; Bishoyi Ratna, Satyaban
Description
Indias hydroclimatic systems are undergoing unprecedented transitions in a warming climate, marked by shifts in temperature extremes, altered precipitation patterns, and increasing drought risk. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of drought trends and hydroclimatic variability across six major geographical zonesWestern, Central, Himalayan, Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Peninsular, and Northeast Indiaduring the period 1971 to 2020. Using a set of advanced climate change metricsStandardized Local Anomalies (SLA), Novel Climate Scores (NCS), and changes in probability of local climate extremes alongside the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we quantify changes in drought conditions and the emergence of non-analogue climates. Changes in climatic extreme are computed using high-resolution daily gridded temperature and rainfall datasets, comparing recent decades against a 19511980 baseline. SLA quantifies deviations from historical variability, highlighting intensified warming over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, western India, and the southern peninsula. NCS reveales the emergence of novel climatescombinations of temperature and precipitation conditions not previously observed, particularly in Southeast India and the Himalayan region. The probability of local climate extremes shows a substantial increase in extreme events across India indicating enhanced climate volatility. These metrics are then integrated with drought analysis using SPEI to incorporate both precipitation and temperature-driven evaporative demand. SPEI trends indicate increasing dryness in Northeast India, the Himalayas, and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, linked to declining monsoonal rainfall and rising temperatures. Meanwhile, Western and Peninsular regions show wetting trends, driven by increased rainfall and convective precipitation events. The rainfall is the dominant drought driver during the monsoon, while high maximum temperatures intensify drought conditions in pre- and post-monsoon seasons by enhancing evaporative demand. Minimum temperature exhibits regional effects, showing a drying influence in the IGP and Himalayas, but a slight moistening signal in Peninsular India. By combining drought indices with climatic extremes metrics, this study offers a comprehensive framework to monitor hydroclimatic shifts and their regional impacts. The findings underscore the need for region-specific adaptation strategies that incorporate early warning systems, sustainable water management, and climate-resilient agriculture to address Indias evolving drought risks. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.
Source
Climatic Change;Volume;179;Issue;1;Article No.;11;
Date
01-01-2026
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Subject
Drought; Hydroclimatic variability; India; Rainfall trends; SPEI; Temperature extremes
Coverage
Tiwari A., Christ University, Pune, Lavasa, 412112, India, India Meteorological Department, Pune, Shivajinagar, 411005, India; Chakravorthy S., India Meteorological Department, Pune, Shivajinagar, 411005, India; Nanjundan P., Christ University, Pune, Lavasa, 412112, India; Ranjan Kumar R., India Meteorological Department, Pune, Shivajinagar, 411005, India; Karmakar A., India Meteorological Department, Pune, Shivajinagar, 411005, India; Bishoyi Ratna S., India Meteorological Department, Pune, Shivajinagar, 411005, India
Rights
Restricted Access; Hardcopy may be available in the library
Relation
ISSN: 1650009; CODEN: CLCHD
Format
online
Language
English
Type
Article

Citation

Tiwari, Arpit; Chakravorthy, Soumi; Nanjundan, Preethi; Ranjan Kumar, Ravi; Karmakar, Ananya; Bishoyi Ratna, Satyaban, “Multi-dimensional changes in drought patterns across India,” CHRIST (Deemed To Be University) Institutional Repository, accessed June 20, 2026, https://archives.christuniversity.in/items/show/21873.

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