ItemArticle

A novel mathematical investigation of carbon emissions, economic growth, carbon taxation and renewable energy dynamics: stability analysis and forecasting

Title
A novel mathematical investigation of carbon emissions, economic growth, carbon taxation and renewable energy dynamics: stability analysis and forecasting
Creator
Namboothiri, V S Manasi; Veeresha, P.; Sherly, K.
Description
The main cause of global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, acting as a significant greenhouse gas. These emissions stem from various sources and significantly contribute to climate change. Fortunately, we have countermeasures like carbon taxes to curb CO2 output. Carbon taxes incentivise a reduction in CO2 production and a shift towards cleaner energy sources by placing a cost on emissions. This paper investigates the interplay between carbon tax policy, carbon emissions, economic output (GDP) and renewable energy consumption. A system of differential equations is constructed to model these relationships based on a comprehensive literature review. Parameter estimation based on real-world data yielded successful fits for the variables. However, the fit for the carbon tax equation is less conclusive, suggesting a more complex relationship with carbon emissions. Stability analysis and the boundedness of the system are carried out. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting is employed to predict future trends. The results suggest a projected increase in GDP and renewable energy consumption over the next ten years, indicating a potential for a cleaner energy transition. Furthermore, the forecasts anticipate a rise in carbon tax implementation. This analysis emphasises how important carbon taxes are for cutting emissions and advancing renewable energy. Results indicate that carbon taxes can promote decarbonisation and economic growth, despite the complicated link between them and CO2 emissions. Both GDP growth and the use of renewable energy are anticipated to increase. However, policies must be improved to combat climate change effectively. Future studies should improve parameters and investigate other relevant elements to promote a low-carbon future. Indian Academy of Sciences 2025.
Source
Pramana - Journal of Physics;Volume;99;Issue;4;Article No.;155;
Date
01-01-2025
Publisher
Springer
Subject
02.30.Hq 02.60.Lj; 04.20.Ex; auto-regressive integrated moving average; boundedness; carbon emission; carbon tax; GDP; Mathematical modelling; renewable energy consumption
Coverage
Namboothiri V.S.M., Centre for Mathematical Needs, Department of Mathematics, CHRIST University, Bengaluru, 560 029, India; Veeresha P., Centre for Mathematical Needs, Department of Mathematics, CHRIST University, Bengaluru, 560 029, India; Sherly K., Centre for Mathematical Needs, Department of Mathematics, CHRIST University, Bengaluru, 560 029, India
Rights
Restricted Access; Hardcopy may be available in the library
Relation
ISSN: 3044289; CODEN: PRAMC
Format
online
Language
English
Type
Article

Citation

Namboothiri, V S Manasi; Veeresha, P.; Sherly, K., “A novel mathematical investigation of carbon emissions, economic growth, carbon taxation and renewable energy dynamics: stability analysis and forecasting,” CHRIST (Deemed To Be University) Institutional Repository, accessed June 19, 2026, https://archives.christuniversity.in/items/show/21993.

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