Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Faculty Publications Article Faculty Publications -Articles Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Franzke, Christian L. E.; Parihar, Ruchi Singh Title A name given to the resource Time of Emergence and Future Projections of Extremes of Malaria Infections in Africa Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 01-01-2025 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived GeoHealth;Volume;9;Issue;6;Article No.;e2025GH001356; Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001356" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001356</a> <br /><br /><a href="https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105008869511?origin=resultslist" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105008869511?origin=resultslist</a> Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Franzke C.L.E., Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea, Department of Integrated Climate System Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Parihar R.S., Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea, Now at Christ University, Bengaluru, India, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea Description An account of the resource The spread of malaria is a major health burden, which affects many people in Africa, depends on climate but also socio-economic conditions. Thus, it is important to gauge the impact of anthropogenic global warming on malaria and attribute anthropogenic causes. Here we compute the Time Of Emergence of vector density and of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) in the SSP3-7.0 scenario using 50 bias-corrected members of Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble simulations. This reveals that vector density, which depends on climate conditions, and EIR, which depends on both climate and population density, will rise significantly and permanently above the pre-industrial background variability due to anthropogenic causes in Africa. Both the vector density and EIR have areas, mainly in central Africa, where anthropogenic causes have already significantly changed, and many more areas will experience anthropogenic caused changes in the period 20302050 and toward the end of this century. Our simulations also show clear evidence that extremes of vector density and EIR increase in the future by almost 100%, suggesting that major malaria epidemic outbreaks will become much more likely. We also perform simulations with constant population and with no global warming which partly reveal underlying malaria dynamics. Our results highlight the need to prepare for an expansion and intensification of the malaria burden if no health interventions are being taken. 2025 The Author(s). GeoHealth published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. Subject The topic of the resource extremes; infectious disease; malaria; time of emergence Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available John Wiley and Sons Inc Relation A related resource ISSN: 24711403; Language A language of the resource English Type The nature or genre of the resource Article Rights Information about rights held in and over the resource All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource online