Export Rhythms in Indian Agriculture: Trend and Seasonal Decomposition of Indian Cereal Products Exports

Title

Export Rhythms in Indian Agriculture: Trend and Seasonal Decomposition of Indian Cereal Products Exports

Creator

Shanavas, P.H.; Anjali, P.K.; Mufeeda, E.

Description

This study investigates the long-term trends and seasonal dynamics of Indias cereal exports specifically Basmati rice, non-Basmati rice, other cereals, and wheat using trend modelling and decomposition techniques. Drawing on monthly export data from April 2006 to November 2024 (with wheat data beginning in 2013), linear, log-linear, and quadratic trend models were estimated alongside additive, multiplicative, and STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess) seasonal models. Results indicate strong linear and exponential growth in Basmati and non-Basmati rice exports, wheat exports exhibited no statistically significant trend and displayed high volatility. Durbin-Watson statistics revealed serial autocorrelation in most models, highlighting the importance of incorporating seasonality and external shocks in trend analysis. Additive decomposition reveals pronounced seasonal effects in Basmati rice exports, STL analysis confirms these patterns. Wheat shows moderate seasonal strength, while non-Basmati rice and other cereals exhibit mild seasonality. These findings underscore the necessity of commodity-specific export strategies aligned with harvest cycles and global demand windows. The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.

Source

Studies in Systems, Decision and Control;Volume;646;pp.479-494

Date

01-01-2026

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH

Subject

Cereal exports; Seasonal decomposition; Seasonal strength; STL decomposition; Time series analysis; Trend modelling

Coverage

Shanavas P.H., KMM Govt. Womens College Kannur, Kerala, Puzhathi, India; Anjali P.K., Christ University, Karnataka, Bengaluru, India; Mufeeda E., KMM Govt. Womens College Kannur, Kerala, Puzhathi, India

Rights

Restricted Access; Hardcopy may be available in the library

Relation

ISSN: 21984182;

Format

online

Language

English

Type

Book chapter

Identifier

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-11612-3_41

https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105038014103?origin=resultslist