Geopolitical Risk, Variability of Oil Price, and the Global Trade Uncertainty: An Economic Perspective

Title

Geopolitical Risk, Variability of Oil Price, and the Global Trade Uncertainty: An Economic Perspective

Creator

Roy Chowdhury, Piyali

Description

Oil prices are the outcome of a highly integrated, dynamic global system. With geopolitical risk and trade policy uncertainty contribute to the volatile world markets, the study analyses the impact of geopolitical risk, trade policy uncertainty on crude oil price globally. It considers data from 2000 to 2023 and finds out systematic link between the three variables. The data proved a long run impact of trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on the crude oil. This enhances the influence of the variables and leads to implementation of policy measures in global markets. The data are tested through Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and checked for long run cointegration and short run association. The policy, thus, has been suggested as to improve the transition towards sustainability globally. Though the impact of geopolitical risk and trade policy uncertainty is not strong on crude oil price in world market, it can affect the short run volatility. Thus, mitigation, diversification and transparency are the key factors to strengthen the existing situation in world. 2026, IGI Global Scientific Publishing. All rights reserved.

Source

Geopolitical and Economic Consequences of Trade Policies and Tariffs;pp.193-204

Date

01-01-2025

Publisher

IGI Global

Coverage

Roy Chowdhury P., School of Business and Management, Christ University, Bangalore, India

Rights

Restricted Access; Hardcopy may be available in the library

Relation

ISBN: 979-833733837-8; 979-833733835-4;

Format

online

Language

English

Type

Book chapter

Identifier

https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3373-3835-4.ch007

https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105023941746?origin=resultslist