ItemConference Paper

Forecasting Market Turbulence: A Multi-model Study Using GARCH, Random Forest, and LSTM in the Indian Stock Market

Title
Forecasting Market Turbulence: A Multi-model Study Using GARCH, Random Forest, and LSTM in the Indian Stock Market
Creator
Shashidhar Yadav, J.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas; Rajath, B.S.; Pradeep Kumar, S.V.; Priyadarshini, N.; Devananda, H.M.
Description
The dynamic and unpredictable nature of the Indian stock market presents significant challenges in forecasting return behavior and managing financial risk. This study explores market turbulence through a comparative analysis of three distinct modeling approaches: the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. By analyzing historical return data from Indian Nifty indices, the research captures both linear dependencies and complex nonlinear patterns associated with market volatility. The results highlight the GARCH models strength in modeling conditional volatility, while the machine learning and deep learning techniquesRandom Forest and LSTMexhibit enhanced predictive power in capturing intricate fluctuations in stock returns. The findings suggest that integrating traditional econometric methods with data-driven approaches offers a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of market dynamics. This multi-model framework is valuable for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers aiming to anticipate and navigate periods of heightened market uncertainty. The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.
Source
Communications in Computer and Information Science;Volume;2863 CCIS;pp.334-347
Date
01-01-2026
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Subject
GARCH; Indian stock market; Market volatility; Random forest; Return prediction
Coverage
Shashidhar Yadav J., School of Business and Management, Christ University, Karnataka, Bengaluru, India; Kulkarni S., School of Business and Management, Christ University, Karnataka, Bengaluru, India; Rajath B.S., School of Business and Management, Christ University, Karnataka, Bengaluru, India; Pradeep Kumar S.V., School of Business and Management, Christ University, Karnataka, Bengaluru, India; Priyadarshini N., Post Graduate Department of Business Administration, Seshadripuram College, Karnataka, Bengaluru, India; Devananda H.M., Department of Management, Adichunchanagiri Institute of Technology, Karnataka, Chikkamagaluru, India
Rights
Restricted Access; Hardcopy may be available in the library
Relation
ISSN: 18650929; ISBN: 978-303217183-2;
Format
online
Language
English
Type
Conference paper

Citation

Shashidhar Yadav, J.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas; Rajath, B.S.; Pradeep Kumar, S.V.; Priyadarshini, N.; Devananda, H.M., “Forecasting Market Turbulence: A Multi-model Study Using GARCH, Random Forest, and LSTM in the Indian Stock Market,” CHRIST (Deemed To Be University) Institutional Repository, accessed June 18, 2026, https://archives.christuniversity.in/items/show/25394.

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