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Modelling of Cointegration with Students T-errors
Two or more non-stationary time series are said to be co-integrated if a certain linear combination of them be-comes stationary. Identification of co-integrating relationships among the relevant time series helps the researchers to develop efficient forecasting methods. The classical approach of analyzing such series is to express the co-integrating time series in the form of error correction models with Gaussian errors. However, the modeling and analysis of cointegration in the presence of non-normal errors needs to be developed as most of the real time series in the field of finance and economics deviates from the assumption of normality. This paper focuses on modeling of a bivariate cointegration with a students-t distributed error. The co-integrating vector obtained from the error correction equation is estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. A unit root test of first order non stationary process with students t-errors is also defined. The resulting estimators are used to construct test procedures for testing the unit root and cointegration associated with two time series. The likelihood equations are all solved using numerical approaches because the estimating equations do not have an explicit solution. A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the finite sample properties of the model. The simulation experiments show that the estimates perform reasonably well. The applicability of the model is illustrated by analyzing the data on time series of Bombay stock exchange indices and crude oil prices and found that the proposed model is a good fit for the data sets. 2022 by authors, all rights reserved. -
Modelling of critical success factors for blockchain technology adoption readiness in the context of agri-food supply chain
The agri-food supply chain is continuously facing several challenges; the most severe are food quality and safety issues. These issues debilitate the performance of the supply chain and often harm the consumer's health. Therefore, there is an urgent need to address food quality and safety assurance in the supply chain. Blockchain technology (BCT) holds the potential to resolve these issues by enhancing security and transparency. The present study explores the critical success factors (CSFs) of BCT adoption readiness in the AFSC. Initially, CSFs are identified through a literature survey and finalised by experts' opinion. The finalised factors are prioritised using the fuzzy best-worst method, followed by sensitivity analysis. The results reflect that 'food quality control', 'provenance tracking and traceability', and 'partnership and trust' as the top three success factors. The study's findings will assist policymakers, managers, and practitioners in strategising the decision-making process while BCT dissemination. Copyright 2023 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. -
Modelling temperature-dependent malaria transmission vector model considering different levels of immunity in host population
Malaria is spread by female Anopheles mosquitoes, which complete their life cycle by feeding on human blood. Parasites from the mosquito's saliva enter the human bloodstream through a mosquito bite. Thus, the link between humans and mosquitoes to parasites is established. According to WHO statistics, malaria appears widespread in tropical and subtropical locations around the equator, including most of Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia. The most prevalent causes of malaria transmission might be amicable temperature, which aids in the growth of the mosquito life-cycle, and a failure to maintain the local socio-economic condition, which reduces individual immunity. This study proposes the vector-host model to understand the spread of malaria infection. A vector model is used to understand the effects of temperature on the development of egg, larval, pupal, and adult mosquito populations. Furthermore, the role of immunity is being explored using the host model. Numerical simulations support the influence of temperature on disease transmission. The study draws attention to the fact that, along with issues like global warming and climate change, managing the socio-economic conditions of the area (healthcare facilities, environmental improvement) is essential for malaria eradication. CSP - Cambridge, UK; I&S - Honda, USA, 2023 -
Modelling the energy dependent X-ray variability of Mrk 335
We present a technique which predicts the energy dependent fractional r.m.s. for linear correlated variations of a pair of spectral parameters and apply it to an XMM-Newton observation of Mrk 335. The broadband X-ray spectrum can be interpreted as a patchy absorber partially covering the primary emission, a warm and hot coronal emission or a relativistically blurred reflection along with the primary emission. The fractional r.m.s. has a non-monotonic behaviour with energy for segments of lengths 3 and 6 ksecs. For each spectral model, we consider every pair of spectral parameters and fit the predicted r.m.s. with the observed ones, to get the pair which provides the best fit. We find that a variation in at least two parameters is required for all spectral interpretations. For both time segments, variations in the covering fraction of the absorber and the primary power law index gives the best result for the partial covering model, while a variation in the normalization and spectral index of the warm component gives the best fit in the two corona interpretation. For the reflection model, the best fit parameters are different for the two time segment lengths, and the results suggests that more than two parameters are required to explain the data. This, combined with the extreme values of emissivity index and reflection fraction parameters obtained from the spectral analysis, indicates that the blurred reflection model might not be a suitable explanation for the Mrk 335 spectrum. We discuss the results as well as the potential of the technique to be applied to other data sets of different AGN. 2025 Elsevier B.V. -
Modelling the nexus of macro-economic variables with WTI Crude Oil Price: A Machine Learning Approach
Crude oil price shocks have a significant impact on aggregate macroeconomic indices like GDP, interest rates, investment, inflation, unemployment, and currency rates, according to empirical evidence. Various factors like GDP, CPI, and Gold prices show a considerable impact on the Crude old prices. The correlation analysis between these variables can help the machine learning model to find the highly impacting factor of the target variable. The advanced machine learning algorithms can be used to find the most relevant variable impacting the crude oil price followed by predicting the crude oil price. Time series analysis algorithms can forecast the crude oil prices for the specific period ahead. In the current study it was observed that US dollar and CPI show a high impact on Crude oil prices. The study has implemented six machine learning algorithms out of which the ARIMAX was found to be the most efficient model. VAR and ARIMA models are used to successfully forecast the crude oil prices for the next 5 years. From the current research, a machine learning model has been obtained as an outcome of the study, which will help economists in the future to understand the dynamics of crude oil prices driver and forecast it for the near future. 2022 IEEE. -
Modelling the role of institutional support in shaping the social behaviour of business administration students
The relevance and scope of teaching social responsibility and ethical behaviour to business students has been widely discussed among academicians worldwide (Giacalone & Thompson, 2006). Presently all business schools emphasize teaching social responsibility to the students. But the effectiveness of this education on the student's social responsibility was not evaluated in the past. This study tries to fill this gap by conducting an empirical study on the effectiveness of social responsibility projects undertaken by undergraduate business students for their overall development. The study hypothesized that the course support and institutional support would influence the student's perception of social responsibility, which in turn affects the student's academic performance. For this purpose, the study was conducted among 450 students who have undergone a social responsibility course. The path analysis method was used to test the hypothesized model. Further, the study also evaluated the moderation effect of gender on this model. The study's major finding indicated that the social responsibility course and the organizational support positively impacted students' social responsibility perceptions, which, in turn, influenced students' academic performance. The study suggests that business institutions should emphasize social responsibility initiatives. 2024 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. -
Modelling, Temperature Analysis, and Mechanical Properties of Friction Stir Welding of Al-Cu Joints with Hardened OHNS Steel Tools
Friction stir welding (FSW) is a nearly modern welding method with vital advantages over the conventional welding process, such as lower distortion, enhanced mechanical properties, and eco-friendly. In FSW, the joint characteristics mainly depend on heat development during the joining process due to its solid-state joining method. The basic principles of thermomechanical methods during FSW are unknown since it is a new metal joining method. In this investigation, the 2D and 3D models of the tools with different pin forms were designed using SOLIDWORKS. The ANSYS software was used to investigate the temperature distributions near the weld zones. The fixture was designed and made according to the machine conditions. The base plates used were AA6101 and C11000; the tool material used was the Hardened OHNS steel tool with square and circular pin form. The temperature values were measured in each trial while joining of Al-Cu base plates along the weld line. The results reveal that in the joint area, a trial with high temperature leads to high ultimate tensile strength (UTS) and Charpy impact strength (CIS). Made at tool rotation speed 1200 rpm and feed velocity 20 mm/min of Hardened OHNS steel tool with circular pin form. The obtained UTS value at joints was less than that of Al and Cu base plates. The microhardness value detected at the joint area was higher than the Al and Cu base plates, providing high strength, and irregularly dispersed. 2022, Books and Journals Private Ltd.. All rights reserved. -
Models for load forecasting and demand response
Increasing pressure on the utilities to accommodate energy efficiency, load management and progress in advanced technology has led to transformations of existing grids into smarter grids. With the development of Smart Grid Technology and the integration of smart meters it is possible to control the equipment installed at the consumer site. Creating awareness among the end- users to participate in load management programs instead of capacity addition is the best solution for maintaining the stability in the grid. Utilities can also encourage consumer participation in load control activities. They can ensure that power is given to a consumer during his priority time. For this, loads have to be categorized, prioritized and then considered for load shedding so that revenue loss and social impacts of load shedding are minimized. It would be beneficial if a consumer's load is not completely shed during load shedding. Amount of power that is shed from a consumer can be limited and consumers can be allowed to adjust their loads based on the availability of power and get incentives from the utilities for their change in load pattern. Consumers are also benefited with the reduced energy charges on the consumed energy during these periods. Review of the recent research work shows that demand response and load forecasting play an important role to relieve the power system from economic and environmental constraints. Various approaches have been used in the past for developing different demand response and forecasting methodologies including neural networks, fuzzy logic and statistical techniques. These methodologies fluctuate in complication, suppleness, and information necessity. In addition, statistical methods such as time series, regression, and state space methods have large numerical deviation in the predicted load series. In general, for accurate modeling of nonlinear and undecided type of load behavior, artificial intelligence-based techniques are employed. Also, these methods concentrate mainly on ordinary system conditions. However, proposing the possible Demand Response strategies to maintain power system security constraints in unpredicted turbulences pose a serious challenge. In the undertaken research, a novel load forecasting method using hybrid Genetic Algorithm Support Vector Regression model has been proposed. The forecast error is around 1-2%. The second part of the work focuses on formulation of demand response strategies based on time of the day and load prioritization. A Unique grading method has been proposed to prioritize the loads and load management during power deficiency by controlling the loads individually using different optimization techniques. The performance of three well recognized population based meta-heuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm, Ant Colony Optimization and Particle Swarm Optimization, to solve load management at the consumer level in the Smart Grid environment were examined in terms of their efficiency, effectiveness and consistency in obtaining the optimal solution. In the last part of the work the Demand Response model for residential load is proposed to minimize the energy cost of the electricity usage by shifting the loads from peak period to off-peak period with the help of intelligent techniques such as Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm. -
Models for load forecasting and demand response /
Increasing pressure on the utilities to accommodate energy efficiency, load management and progress in advanced technology has led to transformations of existing grids into smarter grids. With the development of Smart Grid Technology and the integration of smart meters it is possible to control the equipment installed at the consumer site. Creating awareness among the end users to participate in load management programs instead of capacity addition is the best solution for maintaining the stability in the grid. Utilities can also encourage consumer participation in load control activities. They can ensure that power is given to a consumer during his priority time. For this, loads have to be categorized, prioritized and then considered for load shedding so that revenue loss and social impacts of load shedding are minimized. It would be beneficial if a consumer's load is not completely shed during load shedding. Amount of power that is shed from a consumer can be limited and consumers can be allowed to adjust their loads based on the availability of power and get incentives from the utilities for their change in load pattern. Consumers are also benefited with the reduced energy charges on the consumed energy during these periods. -
Models for Social Responsibility Action by Higher Education Institutions
This book offers 18 chapters on replicable models for social responsibility actions for universities and other academic institutions. The chapters are broadly classified under two major areas: sustainable development models and social sensitisation programmes. The chapters capture the efficient and successful models of social responsibility practiced by Indian and foreign universities. The models are proposed based on the evidence from a rigorous research process. Universities across the world can benefit from the best practices and implement the same successfully. The models will be helpful to universities in achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and rank higher on the Sustainability Tracking, Assessment & Rating System (STARS). The research-based chapters will have significant benefits to researchers in expanding the domain of social responsibility of higher education institutions. As a text, this book will serve students of higher education in sustainability and social responsibility related courses. 2024 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. -
Models of cuber security and data privacy analysis for Indian consumer's e-commerce decision making /
Patent Number: 202211043969, Applicant: Priyanka Kaushik.
Even though it is clear that e-commerce meets the requirements of customers, businesses and the clients they serve continue to be susceptible to cyberattacks, which may already be in progress against them. In this study, a comprehension of the antecedent elements that generate concerns among Indian consumers while using ecommerce websites is presented. It seeks to quantify the perceived hazards and data privacy issues that influence an individual's approach to making a risk-informed purchasing decision. The sake of this investigation, a quantitative method of approach has been used. -
Moderating effect of social media usage on technology barriers to technology adoption by teachers
The education and learning process is redefined with the mesmerizing impact of ever-volatile technology platforms. With the advent of the Industry 4.0, supported by the intelligent web 3.0 connectivity catalyzed the transformation of traditional education philosophies and pedagogies in tune with the Learning 4.0, to empower both learners and educators as co-producers of knowledge. The researches brought to light that social application platforms became an indispensable part of the digital learning process. The bio-inspired technology designs considerably cast off the issues related to ease of use, perceived usefulness, and reduced the perceived internal barriers of the teachers to improve their Technology Adoption substantially. This Technology Adoption research was conducted under the theoretical framework of the education change model of Michael Fullan integrated with educators Communities of Practice. This descriptive research study framed to address how the teachers Technology Adoption was affected by their use of social media platforms and how it moderated their perceived Technology Barriers. Standardized questionnaires from Joe W. Kotrlik and Donna H. Redmann were adopted with a pilot study. Stratified cluster sampling was used to gather 1029 responses from Higher Secondary School teachers of six educational districts in Kerala. The analysis was done with IBM SPSS v.21 and Process v.3.4. Teachers Social Media Use and Perceived Technology Barriers were significantly correlated with the Technology Adoption of the teachers. The perceived Technology Barriers were reduced with respect to their Social Media Usage. The relation of perceived Technology Barriers with Technology Adoption was significantly moderated with Social Media Use. Gender and school sectors were neither mediated nor moderated Technology Adoption. These results are helpful in the teachers technology training programs and for further research. 2019 SERSC. -
Moderating effects of academic involvement in web-based learning management system success: A multigroup analysis
While several educational institutions in India, in accordance to global practices, have adopted Web-Based Learning Management Systems (WLMS) to supplement classroom courses, it is largely seen that these WLMSs fail in their objectives, leading to little or no return on investments. The study aims to define the factors that affect students acceptance of a web-based learning management system and test the moderating effect of their academic involvement in the success of a WLMS. 477 valid questionnaires were collected from university/college students to empirically test the research model using the structural equation modelling approach. The results concludes that indirect and direct effects account for 49% of the variation in the intention to use, which is explained by technical system quality, information quality, educational quality, service quality of the technical support team and user satisfaction. High academic involvement moderates the impact of different service qualities of the WLMS on user satisfaction, intention to use the system, and success of the WLMS. Based on the findings, theoretical and managerial implications are discussed. 2021 -
Moderating influence of critical psychological states on work engagement and personal outcomes in the telecom sector
Organizations want their employees to be engaged with their work, exhibiting proactive behavior, initiative, and responsibility for personal development. Existing literature has a dearth of studies that evaluate all the three key variables that lead to optimal employee performancecritical psychological states (CPSs), work engagement, and personal outcomes. The present study attempts to fill that gap by linking the variable CPSs (which measures experienced meaningfulness, responsibility, and knowledge of results) with the other two. The study surveyed 359 sales personnel in the Indian telecom industry and adopted standardized, valid, and reliable instruments to measure their work engagement, CPSs, and personal outcomes. Analysis was done using structural equation modeling (SEM). Findings indicated that CPSs significantly moderate the relationship between personal outcomes and work engagement. The Author(s) 2014. -
Moderating influence of critical psychological states on work engagement and personal outcomes in the telecom sector /
Sage Journals, Vol.4, Issue 2, pp.584-592. -
Moderating role of firm characteristics on the relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial performance: evidence from India
Purpose: The effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on corporate financial performance (CFP) is shown to depend on both firm-specific and external factors. This study investigates the moderating role of two firm-specific factors the firm life-cycle stage and ownership structure on the CSRCFP relationship in a developing economy setting India. Design/methodology/approach: The study covers 1,419 listed companies in India during 201521. The firm lifecycle is represented using firm age and future growth prospects. Ownership is represented through a dummy variable and promoters holding percentages. Return on assets (RoA) is used as a measure of CFP, while CSR intensity, i.e. the ratio of CSR expenditure to profit after tax (PAT), is used to represent CSR. Fixed effect panel regression and generalized method of moments (GMM) models are used for data analysis. Findings: CSR expenditure has a significant negative impact on CFP. Firm age and future growth prospects amplify this negative impact, indicating that the firm life-cycle has a significant negative moderating effect on the CSRCFP relationship. Furthermore, the impact of CSR on CFP is worse for government companies than private ownership. Promoters holdings have a positive impact on the CSRCFP relationship. Research limitations/implications: The results question the validity of mandatory CSR expenditure on companies operating in developing countries and call for a differentiated policy approach to CSR expectations based on firm characteristics. This study also enhances the existing literature on CSRCFP. Originality/value: The growing research on CSRCFP has limited coverage of firm characteristics as contributing factors. Hence, this paper helps in enhancing the existing literature on CSRCFP and makes it more relevant to firms with specific characteristics. 2024, Nisha Prakash and Aparna Hawaldar. -
Moderating role of location autonomy on technostress and subjective wellbeing in information technology companies
Integrating digital tools into day-to-day work activities has become an undeniable reality. However, the unprecedented reliance on technology has brought with it the escalating degrees of technostress evident through health concerns like chronic musculoskeletal problems and decreased job satisfaction. And the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the negative impact, as IT industries adopted the hybrid workplace approach, especially in developing countries like India. This paper aims to find whether location autonomy moderates the effect of technostress on subjective wellbeing among IT employees working in a hybrid model. A purposive sampling method gathered 440 responses from IT professionals in Bengaluru tech parks. IBM SPSS and AMOS software were used to assess the constructs by SEM analysis, in line with the job demand-control theory. The results showed that location autonomy accounts for 31.6% of the variance in subjective wellbeing, while technostress explains 33.2% of the variance, with dimensions ranging from 21% to 46%. Additionally, location autonomy moderates and strengthens the link between technostress and subjective wellbeing. The study recommends that organizational leaders adopt HR policies that allow employees to choose their workplace rather than mandating a specific location for scheduled days in the week. This approach can potentially improve overall employee wellbeing, offering a favorable resolution to the challenges posed by technostress in the IT industry. Pallavi Datta, Sathiyaseelan Balasundaram, Sridevi Nair, Rekha Aranha, 2024. -
Moderating Role of Project Innovativeness on Project Flexibility, Project Risk, Project Performance, and Business Success in Financial Services
Project risk management is crucial for project success and for achieving short-term and long-term project goals. This study examines the linkage between the management of project risks and project flexibility for information technology projects in Financial Services. A conceptual framework establishing the link between project risks, project flexibility, project performance, and business success, with project innovativeness as a moderating variable, has been introduced. To test the model, data were collated from over 400 managers working in Financial Services projects. The empirical outcomes through a Ordinal regression analysis demonstrate a substantial association between the management of project risks, project flexibility, and success of projects. Project innovativeness moderates the effects of project risks and project flexibility on project performance. Furthermore, managing project risks is vital to reduce the likelihood of failures in projects. This paper enriches existing research by applying a contingency perspective to project risk management and provides practical guidance for managing risks in projects professionally and also the relevancy of project flexibility. 2021, Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management. -
Moderation effect of flexibility in projects on senior management commitment in achieving success in financial services IT projects
Senior management commitment and flexibility improve project responsiveness to volatile and high-impact scenarios, especially in large projects and programs. The aim of this study is to determine how project flexibility interacts with and affects the relationship between senior management commitment and success in IT projects. A cross-sectional survey of 166 managers was used to derive empirical data from the financial services industry and used to test the conceptual framework based on recent project management literature. Ordinal regression analysis demonstrated a significant relationship between senior management commitment and success in projects which is influenced by significantly positive moderations established through flexibility in projects. The study findings can assist project managers and senior leaders to accomplish their short-term and long-term project goals and achieve success in projects by reducing the chances of failures. This paper adds value to existing research in the context of IT projects and the role of project flexibility on their performance. Copyright 2023 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. -
Moderation of Income and Age on Customer Purchase Intention of Green Cosmetics in Bangalore
Cracking the code of customer purchase behaviour is a challenge for market researchers as myriad factors interfere. Marketers are puzzled as competitors position a new product category in the market to create demand. Indian public perceived cosmetics composition as blend of healthy chemical extracts. Television commercials portrayed the presence of chemicals in cosmetics as a product performance booster. People attributed chemical presence to superior product performance. Saturated markets witnessed competitors aiming at increased sales with similar commercials. Under pressure to differentiate, the idea of organic cosmetics started. Companies invested heavily on product development, marketing and branding. Expected success was not achieved as buyers measured performance of cosmetics weighing the absence of chemicals. Scepticism on organic level of the products emerged as various brand commercials claimed their respective compositions a true organic product. Fewer studies explained purchase intention of green cosmetics without focus on health consciousness and consumer innovativeness. Product diffusions were strategized on the basis of consumer innovativeness. Health consciousness captured individuals weightage on health and well-being while purchasing a product. This paper explores relationship of health consciousness and consumer innovativeness with purchase intention development conducting exploratory factor analysis, regression analysis and interaction analysis on selected independent variables using dependent variables. The study found both consumer innovativeness and health consciousness leading to development of purchase intention of green cosmetics. Age and income moderated the relationship of consumer innovativeness and purchase intention. 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.